War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, numerous figures imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is conducting a phased ballot nearly five years after it seized power in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the costly deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

More than 200 people have been charged for interfering with or opposing the polls under a recently enacted legislation which imposes harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a film endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a statement, adding that resistance forces have issued their own threats urging people to boycott the polls.

The military has been fighting on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own militias. It lost control of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive logistical challenge for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Outcomes are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it challenging to predict a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the local levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while others are in hiding abroad.

International Condemnation

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the authorities can adjust tactics if the results in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has urged negotiations to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "the path to democracy".