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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It often acts as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or simply the most shocking upset.

Yet this year's field is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division champions declining and recent also-rans improving in unison. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's facing five other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost every decision – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the level of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still