Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on restraining particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
