A mere two months in the past that the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery berated him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. During that period, with the team failed to win in six, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a sign or the reason for Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. After the in-form star drilled in his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa continued to ten wins in a row , despite not winning their opening six fixtures, now sit only three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s a particularly tough query to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding this season, even as the victories have stacked up.
As per Opta, on just two occasions have Villa registered an xG notably superior than the other team. For a team who have put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic looks like to trade blows with the opposition before hoping their talisman to rescue them with two clinical strikes. This occurred away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and it happened when facing United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents had more efforts and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. As the match-winner stood in front of the North End after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and must be appreciated.
