Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
